L. Parenti/L. Taddia vs F. Andaloro/D. Augenti

Highlights

• • Estimated true probability for away: 50.5% → fair price ≈ 1.98
• • Current away price 1.79 yields EV ≈ -9.6% (negative expected return)

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies an away favorite — useful signal if corroborated by external info
• + We used conservative estimates to avoid overestimating edges in data-sparse context

Cons

• - No external information on surface, form, injuries, or H2H to justify a positive edge
• - Bookmaker vig and market pricing produce negative EV on both sides under our conservative model

Details

We estimate this Pozzuoli doubles matchup is essentially even with a very slight edge to the away pairing, but the market prices (away 1.79, home 1.94) reflect a significant bookmaker margin and do not offer value relative to our conservative probability estimate. Using a conservative estimated true win probability of 50.5% for the away team (weaker evidence to justify a larger edge and no external injury/form/H2H data were available), the fair decimal price would be ~1.98. At the current quoted away price of 1.79 the expected return is negative (EV = 0.505 * 1.79 - 1 = -0.096). The home side is similarly unattractive on our estimate (home true p ≈ 49.5% → EV at 1.94 = 0.495 * 1.94 - 1 ≈ -0.040). Given the lack of corroborating information and the built-in vig (~7% combined implied margin), we decline to recommend a wager at current prices.

Key factors

• • No external form, surface, injury, or H2H data available — we adopt a conservative, near-even prior
• • Bookmaker-implied probabilities (away 1.79 -> 55.9%, home 1.94 -> 51.6%) include a notable vig (~7% combined overround)
• • Our conservative estimate (away 50.5%) implies required odds ≥ 1.98 for positive EV, which is above the current market price