L. Pow/K. Szymkowiak vs A. Fenty/N. Schachter
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With conservative assumptions and no supporting data, the favorite at 1.38 is overpriced relative to our 68% estimate and the underdog at 2.80 does not clear the profitability threshold — no value on either side.
Highlights
- • Favorite implied probability (market) ~72.5% vs our estimate 68% → negative EV
- • Home underdog would need >35.7% true probability to be profitable at 2.80; we estimate below that
Pros
- + Conservative approach avoids overbetting on limited-information match
- + Clear quantitative thresholds show why current prices lack value
Cons
- - Lack of match-specific data increases uncertainty in the probability estimate
- - If unseen information (injury, lineup changes, recent form) exists, our conservative estimate may be off
Details
We compare the market prices (Away 1.38, Home 2.80) to conservative, data‑limited true‑win estimates. With no external form, injury, or H2H data available, we take a conservative estimate that the market favorite (A. Fenty/N. Schachter) has a ~68% true win probability. That implies fair odds of ~1.47, whereas the market is shorter at 1.38 (implied ~72.5%), so the favorite offers negative expected value. The home underdog would need >35.7% true probability to be profitable at 2.80; given the market split and lack of positive information for the underdog, we estimate their true chance well below that threshold. Therefore there is no value on either side at the current quoted prices.
Key factors
- • No independent form, injury, or H2H data available — use conservative priors
- • Market heavily favors the away pair (implied ~72.5%); our conservative estimate is lower (~68%)
- • Doubles results are higher variance; favorites still need meaningful edge to be value