Highlights

• • Current home odds (11.0) exceed our fair threshold (10.526).
• • Edge is small and relies on elevated variance / low-information market mispricing.

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current quoted odds (EV ≈ +4.5%).
• + Underpriced longshot logic is consistent with limited-info doubles matches.

Cons

• - Very limited match data — high model uncertainty.
• - Small margin over bookmaker; downside if our probability estimate is even slightly optimistic.

Details

We observe market prices that make the away pair overwhelming favorites (implied away win ~96.15%, home ~9.09%). With no additional information available on form, surface or injuries, we apply conservative assumptions about match volatility in doubles and bookmaker margin. We estimate the true win probability for the home team (L. Soussi/M. Tahiri) at 9.5% (0.095), slightly above the market-implied 9.09%, reflecting our view that bookmakers can underprice longshot upset potential in lower-information matches. At those parameters the minimum fair decimal price for value would be 10.526; the current available price of 11.0 on the home side therefore implies positive expected value. Calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.095 * 11.0 - 1 = 0.045 (4.5% ROI). We acknowledge high uncertainty due to lack of match-specific data and the small margin vs bookmaker pricing, so this is a speculative, small positive-edge play rather than a strong conviction.

Key factors

• • Market implies heavy away favoritism (away implied ~96.15%, home ~9.09%)
• • We assume elevated variance in doubles and low-information markets, boosting upset chance slightly above implied
• • Bookmaker overround (~5.2%) and potential mispricing on longshots create a narrow edge for the home price