Highlights

• • Current market heavily favors Enzo (1.173) despite limited, inconsistent results
• • At our 35% true probability, minimum fair odds are 2.857 — current 4.31 offers clear value

Pros

• + Large margin between market price and our conservative probability estimate yields high EV
• + Enzo's small sample and recent loss reduce confidence in an 85% win expectation

Cons

• - Very limited publicly-available data on Lachlan increases outcome uncertainty
• - The market may be reflecting insider/contextual info not present in provided research

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to a conservative, evidence-based estimate. The current market prices imply Enzo Aguiard (away) has ~85.2% chance to win (decimal 1.173) and Lachlan Mcfadzean (home) ~23.2% (decimal 4.31). Enzo's published profile shows a very small sample (9 matches, 4-5 record) with mixed recent results including a recent loss on hard courts, indicating inconsistency rather than dominance. Given the limited data and Enzo's volatility, we assign Lachlan a materially higher true win probability than the market (we estimate Lachlan at 35%). At that probability, the break-even decimal price is 2.857; the current 4.31 price offers substantial value. EV calculation: EV = 0.35 * 4.31 - 1 = 0.5085 (≈0.509), so we expect positive ROI at the quoted price. We acknowledge uncertainty from sparse information on Lachlan and possible market knowledge not present in the research, but on the data given the underdog home price looks mispriced and offers value.

Key factors

• • Market implies Enzo ~85.2% and Lachlan ~23.2% — a steep gap
• • Enzo has limited match sample (9 matches, 4-5) and recent mixed results including a loss on hard
• • Sparse data on Lachlan increases variance and potential market overreaction to the short favorite