Highlights

• • Market-implied home probability ~78.7%; our conservative estimate 75%
• • Required fair odds for value on home = 1.333; current = 1.27 (no value)

Pros

• + Heavy favorite likely to be favored on merit, reducing variance risk
• + Prices are stable and widely available

Cons

• - Favorite line is too short to offer positive ROI under conservative assumptions
• - No external data to justify moving our probability estimate enough to find value

Details

We have no external form, injury, surface or H2H data and must be conservative. The market prices imply ~78.7% for the home favorite (1.27) and ~28.6% for the away (3.5) with an evident bookmaker margin. Conservatively we estimate Lachlan Mcfadzean's true win probability at 75% (0.75) to account for margin and uncertainty. That implies a fair decimal price of 1.333; the current home price of 1.27 is shorter than fair value so expected ROI is negative. The away player would need a decimal price of 4.00 (implied probability 25%) to represent value against our estimates; the current 3.5 is also too short. Given those calculations and the lack of supporting data to materially shift probabilities, there is no positive expected value on either side at current prices.

Key factors

• • No independent data on form, surface, injuries or H2H available
• • Bookmaker margin inflates implied probabilities (~7.3% vig)
• • Current favorite price (1.27) is shorter than our conservative fair price (1.333)