Highlights

• • Laelson Rodrigues 0-3 with no wins in recorded pro matches
• • Current price for Enzo (1.331) offers ~9% ROI per our probability estimate

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current market price
• + Opponent shows no recorded wins or positive form on clay

Cons

• - Extremely limited data set for Rodrigues and no provided profile for Enzo increases model uncertainty
• - Small-sample noise and potential unlisted factors (injury, matchup specifics) could change outcome

Details

We estimate Enzo Lima is the clear favorite given Laelson Rodrigues' extremely limited and poor pro record (0-3, all on clay) and Rodrigues' recent straight losses. The market price of 1.331 for Enzo implies ~75.2% win chance; we assess Enzo's true win probability higher at ~82% based on opponent inexperience, surface exposure (Rodrigues' only recorded matches on clay were losses), and absence of positive form for Rodrigues. At our estimated probability (0.82) the expected value of backing Enzo at 1.331 is positive (EV ≈ +0.091), meaning the market underestimates Enzo's chance by roughly 7 percentage points. Uncertainty is significant due to tiny sample size and lack of explicit data on Enzo in the provided research, so while the price shows value, the model risk is elevated.

Key factors

• • Laelson Rodrigues 0-3 pro record with losses on clay
• • Market implies ~75% for Enzo; we estimate ~82% win chance
• • Very small sample for Rodrigues increases uncertainty