Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Steiner: 81.9%
• • Our estimated true probability: 70% → required min odds 1.429

Pros

• + Steiner's long career and surface experience make her a plausible favorite
• + Market liquidity evident in a short favorite price

Cons

• - Recent provided results show losses and do not support an 82% win probability
• - No information on opponent, surface, or injuries — raises model uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Valentina Steiner (1.222 -> 81.94%) to our assessment. Steiner has a long career and broad surface experience, but recent results in the provided sample show losses and there is no supporting data about the opponent Laetitia Sarrazin, surface for this match, or any injury information. Given the incomplete picture and recent mixed form, we estimate Steiner's true win probability at ~70%, well below the market-implied 81.9% — therefore the current favorite price (1.222) does not offer value. The home price (3.88) implies ~25.8% for Sarrazin, but absent any positive information about Sarrazin we cannot justify taking the underdog. We only recommend a side when EV > 0 at available prices; current prices do not meet that threshold.

Key factors

• • Market implies 81.94% for Steiner (1.222) — we view that as too high
• • Steiner has long career experience but recent results in provided data show losses
• • No usable data on Laetitia Sarrazin, surface, or injuries increases uncertainty