Laia Petretic vs Francesca Gandolfi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market overprices Laia Petretic relative to the available performance data; at 1.667 we find negative EV and therefore recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability (~60%) exceeds our estimated true probability (40%).
- • Required odds for value on Petretic would be ≥2.50, well above current 1.667.
Pros
- + We use explicit career and recent-form data from the provided profile to ground the probability estimate.
- + Conservative approach avoids wagering where market and data diverge and uncertainty is high.
Cons
- - Research set lacks any performance or injury data for Francesca Gandolfi, increasing uncertainty.
- - Our estimated probability necessarily relies on limited info and conservative judgment rather than a full head-to-head comparison.
Details
We view the market's pricing (Laia Petretic at 1.667, implied ~60%) as overstating the home player's chances given the available data. Petretic's career record in the provided profile is 10-21 (≈32% win rate across 31 matches) with recent losses on hard courts; there is no comparable performance data for Francesca Gandolfi in the provided research. Given Petretic's sub-.500 career win rate and recent form, a realistic true win probability for Petretic is materially below the market-implied ~60%. Using a conservative estimated-win probability of 40% for Petretic, the current home moneyline (1.667) produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.40 * 1.667 - 1 = -0.333). Therefore there is no value on either side at the quoted prices and we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Laia Petretic's career record in provided data is weak (10-21, ≈32% win rate).
- • Recent documented matches show losses on hard courts, indicating poor short-term form.
- • Market implies ~60% for Petretic (1.667) which appears inflated versus available performance metrics; no comparative data provided for Gandolfi to justify the market edge.