Highlights

• • Players show effectively matched records and recent results in the supplied research
• • Home price 2.20 implies >45.5% breakeven probability; our estimate is 49%

Pros

• + Clear value vs. implied market probability at the quoted 2.20 price
• + Decision grounded in observable parity rather than speculative edges

Cons

• - Very limited data and no head-to-head or surface-location specifics in the research
• - Small margin of edge; result remains sensitive to small errors in probability estimate

Details

We see both players presenting nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form in the supplied profiles, indicating matchup parity. The market prices Raveena Kingsley as a ~61% favorite (decimal 1.629), which appears rich given the lack of distinguishing information in form, surface history, or head-to-head. A conservative true win probability for Lan Mi around 49% implies the current home price of 2.20 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.49*2.20 - 1 = +0.078). We are therefore recommending Lan Mi at 2.20 because the market seems to overprice Raveena relative to the observable evidence of parity between the two players.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and recent-form summaries imply matchup parity
• • Market heavily favors the away player despite no clear performance advantage in provided data
• • Current home decimal 2.20 requires only ~45.45% win probability to breakeven, below our estimate