Lan Mi vs Leonie Schuknecht

Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies Lan Mi ~83.5% chance despite a ~32% career win rate
• • At 4.04, a conservative 45% true probability for the away side yields strong positive EV

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between market price and objective form data
• + Strong positive EV at current odds even with conservative probability estimate

Cons

• - We lack any specific data on Leonie Schuknecht (opponent), increasing uncertainty
• - Single-player data and small sample sizes (31 matches) make the estimate noisy

Details

We see a clear disconnect between the market price (Lan Mi 1.196 implying ~83.5% chance) and the only available performance data: Lan Mi has a 10-21 career record (31 matches) with very poor recent form. That win rate (≈32%) makes the market favorite price for Lan Mi implausible unless the opponent is substantially weaker — but we have no evidence of that. Given the information gap and Lan Mi's losing record and recent losses, we conservatively estimate Leonie Schuknecht's true chance at 45% to win. At the available away price (4.04 decimal) this represents substantial value (EV = 0.45 * 4.04 - 1 = 0.818). We prefer the away side because the bookmaker strongly overprices Lan Mi despite objective indicators of weakness; however uncertainty about the opponent and venue means this is a higher-risk value play.

Key factors

• • Lan Mi's poor career record (10-21, win rate ~32%) and recent losses
• • Market price (Lan Mi 1.196) implies an improbably high chance inconsistent with form
• • No opponent data increases uncertainty but magnifies value on the priced underdog