Lana Virc vs Darja Suvirdjonkova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the away player: using the supplied career record yields an estimated win probability (~32.3%) that makes 3.39 a +EV price (≈9.35% ROI). Proceed with caution due to limited contextual data.
Highlights
- • Market implies 29.5% for away; our baseline estimate is ~32.3%
- • Minimum fair odds for a breakeven bet at our estimate is 3.100; market is 3.39
Pros
- + Clear positive EV using the supplied career win-rate data
- + Current decimal price (3.39) is meaningfully above the min required (3.100)
Cons
- - Research lacks opponent-specific, surface, and injury/context detail which increases risk
- - Darja's recent form shows losses and the small sample size of matches increases variance
Details
We compare the market price to Darja Suvirdjonkova's available profile. The market gives the away moneyline 3.39 (implied win probability 29.5%). Darja's recorded career win rate in the provided dataset is 10 wins out of 31 matches (≈32.26%), and recent results show losses but do not materially alter that baseline. Using her career win rate as our conservative estimate of true probability (≈0.3226) produces an expected value of EV = 0.3226 * 3.39 - 1 ≈ +0.0935 (9.35% ROI on a 1‑unit stake). The min required decimal odds for her to be a breakeven bet at this probability is 3.100, and the current market price (3.39) is comfortably above that. We acknowledge limited context (no opponent-specific or surface-advantage detail) which increases variance, but strictly on odds vs. the supplied performance data, the away price represents positive value.
Key factors
- • Darja Suvirdjonkova career win rate 10/31 ≈ 32.26%, which we use as a baseline true probability
- • Market implied away probability (1/3.39 ≈ 29.5%) is below her baseline win rate, creating value
- • Limited opponent/surface detail increases variance and model uncertainty