Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home (2.54) is ~39.4%; our estimate is 45%
• • Estimated EV at current price is +14.3% ROI on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Current decimal odds (2.54) exceed our minimum fair odds (2.222) for Tararudee
• + Research shows no clear superiority for the market favorite, supporting an underdog bias

Cons

• - Player data provided is sparse and nearly identical—high uncertainty in any edge
• - If unknown factors (injury, recent head-to-head, surface preference) exist, they could invalidate our estimate

Details

We find value backing Lanlana Tararudee (home) because the market prices Veronika Erjavec at ~65% implied chance (decimal 1.532) while the available player data shows near-identical career profiles and recent form for both players with no clear edge for Erjavec. Given the parity in the supplied profiles and lack of injury or surface advantage information, we estimate a substantially higher true win probability for Tararudee (45%) than the market-implied 39.4% (decimal 2.54). At the offered 2.54, that produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.45*2.54 - 1 = +0.143), so the home side represents a value bet versus the current market price.

Key factors

• • Provided career profiles and recent form show near-identical records for both players
• • Market heavily favors Erjavec (implied ~65%) despite no clear advantage in the supplied data
• • No injury, surface, or H2H information in the research to justify the market gap