Laquisa Khan vs Taylah Preston
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home underdog (Laquisa Khan) at 4.25 — our conservative 30% win estimate implies a +27.5% EV versus the market price.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~83% for the away player, which is unsupported by near-identical records and form
- • Home needs only ~23.5% chance to be +EV at current odds; we estimate a materially higher 30% chance
Pros
- + Strong positive EV at current market price (estimated +27.5% ROI)
- + Bet is backed by tangible mismatch between market-implied probability and available performance data
Cons
- - Limited dataset and lack of head-to-head/injury detail increases uncertainty in our probability estimate
- - Underdog outcome is inherently higher variance — match could still be a clear favorite win
Details
The market heavily favors the away player at decimal 1.20 (implying ~83% win probability), but the available player data shows nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent form for both competitors on similar surfaces. There is no clear performance edge to justify an 83% market probability. Conservatively estimating Laquisa Khan's true chance at 30%, the required fair odds would be 3.333; the offered home price of 4.25 therefore contains clear value. EV calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.30 * 4.25 - 1 = +0.275 (27.5% ROI). Given parity in records, surfaces, and recent losses for both players, the market price for the favorite looks overstated and the underdog price is a value opportunity.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience
- • Bookmaker price for away (1.20) implies an implausibly high win probability (~83%) given available form data
- • Home decimal 4.25 exceeds the break-even threshold (3.333) based on our 30% win estimate