Highlights

• • Home implied probability (31.1%) is far below our 50% estimate
• • Quoted home odds (3.21) yield a ~0.605 ROI on our probability

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between implied and estimated true probability
• + Research shows no decisive edge for the market favorite

Cons

• - Research lacks H2H data and detailed match-level context (possible unreported factors)
• - Market may reflect information not present in provided sources (fitness, late withdrawals, local conditions)

Details

We find value on the home moneyline. The provided player profiles show virtually identical career records and recent form, with no clear edge for Federica Di Sarra despite the market making her a heavy favorite. The market-implied probability for the away player at decimal 1.318 is ~75.8% while the home decimal 3.21 implies ~31.1%. Given the comparable histories, surfaces played, and similarly mixed recent results in the research, we assess the true win probability for Laura Boehner at 50.0%, far higher than the implied 31.1%. At the quoted home price (3.21) that gap produces strong positive expected value. We acknowledge limited granular match-level information (no H2H, no injuries listed) so we price conservatively compared to an extreme 50/50 split but still find meaningful value.

Key factors

• • Both player profiles in research show nearly identical career records and recent form
• • Market heavily favors away (implied ~75.8%) despite no clear advantage in provided data
• • Both players have experience on all surfaces listed, reducing surface-based edge