Highlights

• • Implied market chance for Boehner is ~74%, well above our 60% estimate
• • Lack of opponent data and evidence of recent good form reduces confidence in the favorite

Pros

• + Böhner has extensive career experience and an overall winning record
• + Market clearly sees Böhner as favorite, which can reflect seeding/home/experience advantages

Cons

• - Provided recent results include losses and do not indicate strong current form
• - No data on Ylenia Zocco prevents confident adjustment to the market probability; high uncertainty

Details

The market prices Laura Boehner at 1.35 (implied ~74.1%). Our assessment, using only the provided research, is that Boehner is an experienced player with a long career record (559-507, career win rate ~52%) but recent results in the provided sample show losses and do not demonstrate clear dominant form. There is no data provided on Ylenia Zocco to justify a market gap that wide. Conservatively we estimate Boehner's true chance at ~60%; at that probability the fair price would be ~1.667. At the current quoted 1.35 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.60*1.35 - 1 = -0.19), so there is no positive-value bet on the favorite. Because available research does not include opponent form, H2H, injury status, or surface-specific edge, we do not find sufficient evidence to take the favorite at current odds and therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Böhner career win rate ~52% (559-507) indicates competence but not dominance
• • Recent provided matches show losses; no convincing recent form advantage
• • No available data on Ylenia Zocco (form, ranking, injuries, H2H) to justify market gap