Highlights

• • Laura's long experience supports a mid-50% true win probability at ITF level
• • Current odds heavily favor the home player and do not offer value

Pros

• + Extensive career experience across all surfaces
• + Career win rate above 50% (559-507) suggests baseline reliability

Cons

• - Recent listed matches in 2025 show losses, indicating diminished short-term form
• - Market pricing implies a much higher win probability than our estimate, removing value

Details

We base our assessment on the provided career data for Laura Boehner (559-507, career win rate 52.4%) and the sparse recent-match notes showing recent losses in 2025. Given her long career and experience across surfaces, we modestly uplift the raw career win rate to an estimated true probability of 54.0% for this ITF-level match (experience advantage vs unknown opponent). Current market decimal odds for the home moneyline are 1.344, which imply a win probability of ~74.4%. To be profitable at those odds we would need Laura's true win probability above 74.4%, which is far higher than our 54.0% estimate. Using the current home price (1.344) yields a negative expected value (EV = 0.54 * 1.344 - 1 = -0.274), so there is no value on the favorite at available prices. We therefore recommend no bet. If prices drift out (home price ≥ 1.852) value would start to appear for Laura according to our model.

Key factors

• • Career win rate 52.4% over 1066 matches indicating solid baseline competence
• • Recent listed 2025 results show losses, reducing short-term form confidence
• • Current market heavily favors the home side (implied ~74.4%), which far exceeds our win-probability estimate