Laura Boehner vs Ylenia Zocco
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given limited data and middling estimated win probability (60%), the market price of 1.34 for Laura offers negative expected value, so we do not recommend a bet.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~74.6% chance for Laura at 1.34; our estimate is ~60%
- • Fair decimal price based on our estimate is ~1.667 — current market is too short
Pros
- + Large career sample and modest positive overall win record
- + Home/favored price reflects market confidence which can be correct in many matchups
Cons
- - Recent 2025 matches show losses and lack of clear recent form advantage
- - No data on the opponent or surface — big information gap raises model risk
Details
We compared the quoted moneyline (Home 1.34, Away 3.00) to our estimate of Laura Boehner's true win probability based only on the provided career and recent-form data. Laura's long career (559-507 over 1,066 matches) gives her baseline competence (career win rate ~52%), but the recent results excerpt show losses in mid-2025 and sparse positive indicators of strong current form. With no information on Ylenia Zocco, surface, or head-to-head, we conservatively estimate Laura's true win probability at 60%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.667, while the market is offering 1.34 (implied prob ~74.6%), producing a negative expected value. Therefore there is no value on the heavy favourite at current prices and we recommend not betting either side given the limited data.
Key factors
- • Laura Boehner career win rate ~52% (559/1066) indicating overall solidity but not dominance
- • Recent listed results in 2025 show losses and no strong winning streak — form concern
- • No information provided about opponent (Ylenia Zocco), surface, or H2H, increasing uncertainty