Highlights

• • Implied probability for Luciano from odds: 37.2%
• • Our estimated true probability for Luciano: 48.0% → positive EV at 2.69

Pros

• + Large gap between our estimated probability and market-implied probability creates significant EV
• + Both players' career records are similar, supporting a more even true-match probability than the market suggests

Cons

• - Research is sparse and largely symmetric; lack of match-specific factors increases uncertainty
• - If there are unreported match-level edges (injury, recent form, surface preference) favoring Coleman, the value may evaporate

Details

We compare the market prices to the limited player data available. The moneyline implies Elizabeth Coleman (away) is ~70.1% to win (1/1.426), while Lavinia Luciano (home) is ~37.2% (1/2.69). The research shows nearly identical career records (559-507, overall win rate ~52.5%) and no clear surface, injury, or form advantage for Coleman in the provided notes. With both players appearing statistically similar and no decisive differentiator in the research, the market's 70% view for Coleman looks overstated. We conservatively estimate Luciano's true win probability at 48.0%, which is substantially higher than the market-implied 37.2%, creating positive expected value at the current home price of 2.69. Calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.48 * 2.69 - 1 = 0.2912 (29.12% ROI).

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and win rates in the provided data
• • Current market implies a large advantage for the away player (≈70%) that is not supported by the supplied profiles
• • No clear injury, surface, or recent-form edge for Coleman in the research; recent results listed show losses for both