Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Mashtakov 95.15%; our estimate 98%
• • Min fair odds based on our estimate: ~1.020 (market 1.051)

Pros

• + Clear mismatch in form and experience based on available data
• + Market price is wide enough to provide a small positive EV even with conservative probability

Cons

• - Edge is small and sensitive to probability assumptions
• - Limited research on Mashtakov in provided data increases model uncertainty

Details

The market prices Nikita Mashtakov at 1.051 (implied win probability ~95.15%). Lawrence Bataljin's record (3-20) and absence of recorded grass results imply a very low true chance of winning this match. Conservatively estimating Mashtakov's true win probability at 98.0% yields positive expected value versus the market price: our model's win probability (98%) is meaningfully higher than the market-implied 95.15%, producing a small but real edge. Given the limited data on Mashtakov in the supplied research, we kept the probability conservative; at this probability the minimum fair odds required are ~1.020, well below the available 1.051, so backing the favorite offers value.

Key factors

• • Bataljin's poor overall record (3-20) and recent losses
• • No recorded grass experience for Bataljin (surface disadvantage)
• • Market price for Mashtakov very short (1.051) — small edges possible if true win% >95.15%