Highlights

• • Normalized market win probability for away: ~55.84%
• • Required odds for away to be profitable given our estimate: >= 1.791

Pros

• + Market prices are consistent and not dramatically skewed — low chance of an obvious misprice
• + Conservative, normalized approach avoids overreacting to missing information

Cons

• - No specific match-level data available (form, injuries, surface, H2H), so our estimate may miss actionable edges
• - Bookmaker margin (overround) creates a built-in negative EV at current quotes

Details

We have no external data on form, surface preference, injuries, or H2H, so we take a conservative market-based approach. The bookmaker prices imply probabilities of ~47.62% for Lea Boskovic (2.10) and ~60.24% for Miriam Bianca Bulgaru (1.66), with a total book overround of ~7.86%. Normalizing those implies true-win estimates of ~44.16% (home) and ~55.84% (away). With no independent reason to deviate from the market, we use the normalized away probability (0.5584) as our best conservative estimate. At the current away price (1.66) EV = 0.5584 * 1.66 - 1 ≈ -0.074, which is negative, so there is no value on either side at available prices. To be profitable on the away moneyline we would need the bookmaker to offer at least ~1.791; for the home side to be profitable our true probability would need to exceed ~47.62% (equivalently odds better than ~2.100 given our current estimates). Given the lack of independent information and the negative EV at current prices, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • No external data on form, injuries, surface, or H2H — conservative market-normalized approach used
• • Bookmaker market implies ~7.9% overround; normalized win probabilities ~44.16% (home) / 55.84% (away)
• • Current away price (1.66) is below the break-even price (~1.791) for our conservative probability estimate