Highlights

• • Home implied probability (2.0%) is below our conservative estimate (2.5%)
• • EV positive at current odds: ~+0.25 units per 1 unit stake

Pros

• + Clear mathematical edge versus market pricing if our conservative probability is accurate
• + High payout if the upset occurs; bookmakers slightly overround aids value

Cons

• - Very low true probability—outcome is unlikely and variance is high
• - No match-specific intel (surface, form, injuries, H2H) available, increasing uncertainty

Details

Current market prices make Miriam Bulgaru an overwhelming favorite at 1.012 (implied ~98.8%) while Lea Boskovic is priced at 50.01 (implied ~2.0%). With no additional injury or surface intelligence available we adopt conservative assumptions but still account for the higher upset variance typical of ITF-level matches and the small bookmaker overround. We estimate Boskovic's true chance of winning at 2.5%, which is meaningfully above the market-implied 2.0% and creates positive expected value. Using the available price (50.01) the ROI for a 1-unit stake is positive (EV = 0.025 * 50.01 - 1 ≈ 0.250), so backing the longshot is a value play, albeit high variance.

Key factors

• • Market implies Boskovic win probability ≈ 2.0% (decimal 50.01)
• • We conservatively estimate Boskovic true win probability at 2.5%, reflecting ITF upset variance and limited intel
• • Bookmaker price on favorite is extremely short (1.012); slight overround makes longshot marginally underpriced