Legacy vs Imperial
Esport
2025-09-11 13:35
Start: 2025-09-11 17:15
Summary
Pick: away
EV: 0.05
Current Odds
Home 1.592|Away 2.39
Best Odds
Match Info
Match key: Legacy_Imperial_2025-09-11
Analysis
Summary: We see a small value on Imperial at 2.50 because our conservative estimated win probability (42%) exceeds the market-implied probability (40%), yielding ~5% ROI on a 1-unit stake.
Highlights
- • Estimated Imperial win probability: 42%
- • Current decimal odds (Imperial): 2.50 → small positive EV
Pros
- + Market price offers a small edge versus our conservative probability model
- + Clear numeric margin between required odds (2.381) and available odds (2.50)
Cons
- - Very limited information available; estimate is necessarily conservative and uncertain
- - Edge is small (5% EV) and could vanish with any additional negative information
Details
With no external research available we use conservative priors: a 50/50 baseline adjusted for a modest home advantage to Legacy. After accounting for unknowns and the market vig, we estimate Imperial's true win probability at 42%. The market currently prices Imperial at 2.50 (implied probability 40%), which is slightly shorter than our estimate. That gap produces a small positive expected value (EV = 0.05 per unit staked). Given the limited information, this is a low-margin value bet rather than a strong recommendation.
Key factors
- • No external match-specific research available; conservative priors used
- • Modest home advantage assumed for Legacy but not enough to justify market price
- • Market-implied probability for Imperial (40%) is slightly below our estimated 42% true probability