Leire De Ezcurra vs Amelie Brooks

Highlights

• • Home price 1.43 implies ~69.9% — we estimate ~66%
• • EV at current prices is negative for both sides

Pros

• + Market clearly favors the home player, suggesting consistent strength
• + Quoted prices are standard and widely available

Cons

• - No form, surface, injury, or H2H data to refine probabilities
• - Small gap between our estimate and market leaves little margin for value

Details

We have no external match data beyond the quoted moneyline, so we take a conservative approach. The market prices the home player at 1.43 (implied ~69.9%) and the away at 2.65 (implied ~37.7%). Based on a conservative true win estimate for the home player of 0.66 (66%), the home is slightly overvalued by the market: our EV calculation using the current home price is 0.66 * 1.43 - 1 = -0.056 (about -5.6% ROI). For the away (using 1 - 0.66 = 0.34), EV at 2.65 is 0.34 * 2.65 - 1 = -0.099 (about -9.9% ROI). Neither side shows positive expected value at the available prices. To be profitable we'd need a decimal price >= 1.515 on the home (min_required_decimal_odds) given our 66% estimate, or the away would need a true probability > 0.377 (min_required_decimal_odds = 2.65) to justify backing at current price. Given the lack of form, surface, or injury information and the small margin between our conservative probabilities and market-implied probabilities, we decline to recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No external match data; conservative probability estimates only
• • Market-implied probability for home (≈69.9%) exceeds our conservative estimate (66%)
• • Neither side offers positive EV at current quoted prices