Leo Borg vs Aziz Ouakaa

Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Ouakaa = 35.7%; our estimate = 40%
• • Positive EV of 0.12 per unit at current odds 2.80

Pros

• + Clear positive expected value at widely available price 2.80
• + Both players' records and recent results do not support a 71% probability for the favorite

Cons

• - Limited head-to-head and detailed match-conditions data increases model uncertainty
• - If Borg has unreported factors (injury-free form spurt, favorable matchup), our probability could be overstated

Details

We see the market prices Leo Borg at 1.40 (implied win probability 71.4%) and Aziz Ouakaa at 2.80 (implied 35.7%). The published records and recent results for both players are very similar on hard courts, with Borg at roughly a 58.5% career win rate (53 matches) and Ouakaa at roughly a 55.6% win rate (63 matches). There is no clear domination by Borg in form or surface history to justify a 71% expectation. Given comparable form, slightly greater match experience for Ouakaa, and mixed recent results for both, we assign Ouakaa a true win probability of 40%. At decimal odds 2.80 this produces positive expected value: EV = 0.40 * 2.80 - 1 = 0.12 (12% ROI). The market would need to offer odds below 2.50 for this estimate to lose value. Therefore we recommend taking the away side because the market price understates Ouakaa's chance by our model and yields a positive expected value at the quoted 2.80.

Key factors

• • Market implies Borg ~71% which is high relative to comparable career records
• • Both players have similar win-rates and recent mixed form on hard courts
• • Ouakaa has more match experience and the current away price (2.80) exceeds our fair threshold (2.50)