Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for De Loore ≈93.5%
• • Our more conservative estimate ~90% yields negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + De Loore has the stronger match record and more match experience
• + Recent activity on hard courts supports De Loore's edge

Cons

• - Market odds are heavily shortened, leaving no value at available prices
• - Small sample sizes and limited detailed match-level stats increase uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (Away Joris De Loore at 1.07, implied probability ≈93.5%) to our estimated win probability. Based on the provided match data, De Loore has a clearly stronger record (15-11) and more matches than Leo Deflandre (3-11), and both have recent matches on hard courts. That said, the historical records and limited sample sizes do not justify the market implying >93% certainty. We estimate De Loore's true win probability at about 90% (0.90) given form and surface alignment. At the current decimal price of 1.07 the expected value is negative: EV = 0.90 * 1.07 - 1 = -0.037 (≈ -3.7% ROI). To have positive value versus our estimate, the market would need to offer at least 1.111 decimal odds (1 / 0.90). Because the current price (1.07) is shorter than our break-even, we find no value to recommend backing either side.

Key factors

• • Clear disparity in career records: De Loore 15-11 vs Deflandre 3-11
• • Both players have recent matches on hard courts — surface is neutral to De Loore
• • Market implies ~93.5% for De Loore; our estimate (90%) does not justify that price