Highlights

• • Home implied probability ~81.1% vs our 78% estimate — market is slightly overestimating the favorite
• • Both computed EVs are negative (home ≈ -3.9%, away ≈ -15.3%)

Pros

• + Market has a clear favorite — lower volatility if one were forced to back the favorite
• + Our approach is conservative given lack of data

Cons

• - Insufficient match-specific information (form, surface, injuries, H2H) increases uncertainty
• - No positive EV at available public prices, so staking would be suboptimal

Details

We conservatively estimate Leo Deflandre (home) as a clear favorite but not by as wide a margin as the market implies. With no external research available, we assign a true win probability of 78% to the home player and 22% to Tomas Jordi Leston. Market decimal prices: Home 1.233 (implied ~81.1%), Away 3.85 (implied ~25.97%). Calculated EVs using our estimates: Home EV = 0.78 * 1.233 - 1 = -0.039 (≈ -3.9%); Away EV = 0.22 * 3.85 - 1 = -0.153 (≈ -15.3%). Both sides show negative expected value versus our conservative probabilities, so we do not recommend a bet. Key drivers: lack of current form/head-to-head/surface data, market heavy-favorite pricing likely includes a bookmaker margin, and the favorite's market-implied probability exceeds our conservative true probability estimate.

Key factors

• • No external data available — we use conservative assumptions
• • Market heavily favors the home player (low decimal odds)
• • Implied market probability slightly exceeds our conservative estimate