Highlights

• • Benjamin's supplied career record (10-21) conflicts with favorite status
• • Home at 2.00 offers ~8% ROI under our conservative probability estimate

Pros

• + Clear statistical mismatch between Benjamin's documented record and market pricing
• + Reasonable upside: even a modest true probability edge (>50%) produces positive EV at 2.00

Cons

• - Very limited data on Leo Doukhan provided, increasing model uncertainty
• - Small sample and potentially missing contextual info (injury, matchup specifics) could flip the expectation

Details

We see a pricing disconnect: the market makes Benjamin Jeanne Grandinot the favorite at 1.73 (implied win chance ~57.8%), yet the only player data in the research shows Jeanne Grandinot with a weak 10-21 career record (≈32% win rate) and recent losses on hard/clay. With no positive evidence in the supplied research to justify a ~58% chance for him, we assess that the market is overstating his probability. Given that imbalance and the available odds (Leo Doukhan 2.00), backing the home player offers positive expected value if we assign a realistic win probability for Leo above ~50%. We conservatively estimate Leo's true win probability at 54%, which yields positive EV at the offered 2.00 price. Our estimate is tempered by limited data on Leo and overall small-sample noise, so the recommendation is cautious.

Key factors

• • Benjamin Jeanne Grandinot career record 10-21 (≈32% win rate) suggests weak baseline performance
• • Recent documented matches show losses on hard and clay, indicating poor form in the provided sample
• • Market prices (Benjamin 1.73) imply a much higher probability than the supplied form data supports