Highlights

• • Bookmaker price: Leo Lagarrigue 1.075 (implied ~93.0%)
• • Our conservative true probability: 90.0% → required odds for value = 1.111

Pros

• + Heavy market confidence in the favorite reduces chance of surprise
• + Small overround indicates a generally efficient price environment

Cons

• - Current price (1.075) is shorter than our minimum value threshold (1.111)
• - No external data available to justify raising our win-probability estimate

Details

We compared the market price (Leo Lagarrigue 1.075 decimal) to a conservative estimated true probability. The bookmaker-implied probability for the home player is ~93.0%, while our conservative estimate of his win probability is 90.0% given lack of additional form, surface, injury, and H2H data. At our estimate the fair decimal price would be ~1.111; the current price of 1.075 does not offer positive expected value (EV = 0.90 * 1.075 - 1 = -0.0325). With no external information to justify a higher true probability and only a small market overround, we do not find value on either side at the posted prices.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors home at 1.075 (implied ~93.0%)
• • Conservative estimated true probability set at 90.0% due to absent data
• • Required decimal odds for value (1/p) = 1.111, current 1.075 is lower
• • Small bookmaker overround; no compensating informational edge apparent
• • Unknown surface/form/injury/H2H increases uncertainty; we err conservative