Highlights

• • Market implies Corwin win prob ~55.36%; our estimate 56.0% → small positive EV
• • Surface uncertainty (no grass data) increases risk despite the small edge

Pros

• + Corwin's better career win rate and stronger recent serve metric support a higher true probability
• + Current odds (1.806) are slightly above the break-even threshold for our probability (min required 1.786)

Cons

• - Both players lack documented grass-court history in the provided research, reducing confidence in the estimate
• - Edge is small (≈1.1% ROI) and vulnerable to match-day variability or unreported factors

Details

We estimate Felix Corwin as slight value at the current price. Corwin has the stronger career record (30-26 vs Raquillet 19-21) and recent match-level data showing an extremely strong 1st-serve performance in one recent match (1st Serve Won 85%), while Raquillet's recent reported 1st-serve metric was weaker (58%). Both players' documented matches are on clay/hard and there is no grass history in the provided profiles, so surface uncertainty reduces confidence, but the head-to-head evidence in form and overall win rates favors Corwin. The market-implied probability for Corwin at 1.806 is 55.36%; our estimated true probability is 56.0%, which yields a small positive EV (EV = 0.56 * 1.806 - 1 = 0.01136). Given the close market pricing, that small edge justifies backing the away player only if one accepts limited-data margin.

Key factors

• • Felix Corwin has the stronger overall win-loss record (30-26 vs 19-21)
• • Corwin produced an excellent recent 1st-serve performance (85% in a reported match) while Raquillet's recent 1st-serve metric was weaker (58%)
• • Both players lack documented grass experience in the provided profiles which raises uncertainty and increases variance