Leo Borg vs Moez Echargui
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value backing Moez Echargui at 1.30 because his true win probability (~78%) slightly exceeds the market-implied probability, yielding a positive but modest EV.
Highlights
- • Echargui is the stronger favorite based on career and recent records
- • Current price (1.30) slightly underestimates his win probability in our view
Pros
- + Clear advantage in overall win rate and recent consistency
- + Price offers a small but positive expected value at our probability estimate
Cons
- - Edge is small — volatility in best-of-three matches can erase short-term gains
- - No head-to-head or injury details available to further reduce uncertainty
Details
We favor Moez Echargui based on a materially stronger overall win rate (56-16 vs 31-22) and more consistent recent results on hard courts. The market price (1.30) implies a win probability of ~76.9%; our assessment of Echargui's true win probability is ~78.0%, driven by superior form, experience, and performance on comparable surfaces. At that estimated probability the current price offers a small positive edge (EV ≈ +0.014 units per 1 unit staked). Uncertainty comes from limited head-to-head information and the natural variance of best-of-three tennis, so the edge is modest but present.
Key factors
- • Moez Echargui has a substantially better win-loss record (56-16) versus Leo Borg (31-22)
- • Both players have played on hard courts recently; Echargui shows more consistent recent form
- • Market-implied probability (1/1.3 ≈ 76.9%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (78%), creating a small positive EV