Highlights

• • Market implies ~78.7% for Xilas; we estimate ~87%
• • EV at current price ≈ +0.105 (10.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Clear form and experience advantage for Xilas
• + Current odds offer a measurable positive EV vs our probability

Cons

• - Small-sample volatility in ITF events can still produce upsets
• - Public markets sometimes underprice momentum/in-match variables not in the static research

Details

We view Ioannis Xilas as the clear favorite based on comparative form and experience. Leo Lagarrigue is 0-9 in recorded matches, while Xilas is 15-12 with substantially more match exposure; that form gap and match experience materially favor Xilas. The market price for Xilas (1.27 decimal, implied probability ~78.7%) appears to understate his chance relative to our estimate of 87%. Using our estimated true win probability (0.87) against the available 1.27 price yields positive expected value (EV = 0.87 * 1.27 - 1 ≈ 0.105). Key drivers are the stark form disparity, Xilas' larger sample of matches and consistent results, and no reported injury concerns for either player. Given those factors we find value on the away moneyline at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Large form gap: Lagarrigue 0-9 vs Xilas 15-12
• • Xilas has far greater match experience on similar surfaces
• • Market-implied probability for Xilas (~78.7%) below our 87% estimate
• • No reported injuries or mitigating conditions in research