Leo Raquillet vs Aryan Shah
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Small-value bet on Leo Raquillet at 3.64 because the heavy favorite is likely over-priced given both players' lack of grass experience; edge is marginal and sensitive to assumptions.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~78.7% for Aryan; we estimate Aryan ~72% (Leo ~28%) due to surface uncertainty
- • Leo needs odds ≥3.571 to be +EV; current 3.64 just clears that threshold
Pros
- + Current price on Leo slightly exceeds our break-even threshold
- + Surface uncertainty cuts into the favorite's perceived advantage
Cons
- - Small margin of value — vulnerable to modest changes in probability estimates
- - Aryan's superior overall record and experience remain a strong counter-argument
Details
We see Aryan Shah as the clear favorite on paper (stronger overall win-loss and more matches played) but both players have no recorded grass experience in the provided profiles, which increases outcome uncertainty. The market prices Aryan at 1.27 (implied ~78.7%) which leaves a small window of value on Leo Raquillet if we assign Leo a realistic true win probability around 28% given his 50% career win-rate and the unknown surface effect. At decimal 3.64 that probability converts to a small positive expected value (EV = 0.28 * 3.64 - 1 ≈ +0.019). We judge this a marginal value play only because the market over-prices the favorite relative to the surface uncertainty and Leo's baseline competence; however the edge is small and sensitive to a modest reduction in Leo's true probability.
Key factors
- • Aryan Shah has a stronger overall record (41-24 vs 21-21) and more match experience
- • Neither player has recorded grass matches in the provided data, increasing outcome uncertainty
- • Current market heavily favors Aryan (1.27); Leo at 3.64 offers marginal value if his win chance is ≥28%