Highlights

• • Implied market chance for Leolia is only ~28.7%
• • We estimate Leolia’s true chance at ~45%, creating significant value

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge in value when comparing our probability to market-implied probability
• + No injuries or surface mismatches to justify the heavy favorite pricing

Cons

• - Small sample sizes and limited recent-match detail increase estimation uncertainty
• - Market may have extra information not present in the provided research (ranking, head-to-head, form details)

Details

We judge the market price (Leolia 3.48 implied ~28.7%) understates Leolia Jeanjean’s chance. The research shows both players have near-identical career records (10-21 across similar surfaces) and mirrored recent results, so there is no clear performance advantage for Janice Tjen to justify a ~75% implied win probability. With no injury or surface edge evident, we assign Leolia a materially higher win probability than the market (~45% vs implied 28.7%), creating positive expected value at the current home decimal price of 3.48. EV calculation: implied p_market = 1/3.48 = 0.287; our p = 0.45; EV = 0.45*3.48 - 1 = 0.566 (56.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake).

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surfaces played
• • Market implies a very large gap (Janice ~75%); research does not support that magnitude of superiority
• • No reported injuries or surface advantages for the favorite; data sample is limited and noisy