Highlights

• • Market implies Angeloni ~31.7% while we estimate ~36%
• • Positive EV at current price: ~+13.4% for a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Angeloni's provided clay win-rate is superior to Beraldo's provided record
• + Current price (3.15) offers a significant margin above our min-required odds (2.778)

Cons

• - Very small sample sizes and recent losses create high uncertainty in true ability
• - No head-to-head data or injury information available to reduce model risk

Details

We estimate Leonardo Angeloni has a materially higher true chance to win this clay-court match than the market-implied probability priced into the 3.15 decimal for the home moneyline. The market implies Angeloni has ~31.7% chance (1/3.15) while Lorenzo Beraldo is strongly favoured at 1.32 (~75.8%). Looking only at the provided player records, Angeloni's recorded win rate (2-3, ~40%) on clay is meaningfully better than Beraldo's broader record (3-10, ~23%) and both players show recent losses, so there is no clear form advantage for Beraldo to justify such a heavy market bias. After adjusting Angeloni's raw win-rate downward for small-sample noise and recent defeats, we conservatively estimate his true probability at 36%. At that probability the 3.15 price offers positive expected value (EV = 0.36 * 3.15 - 1 = 0.134), so backing the home player is a value play versus the currently available moneyline. We note high variance and very small sample career records, so this view carries elevated uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Angeloni's higher raw win-rate on clay (2-3 ≈ 40%) versus Beraldo's overall record (3-10 ≈ 23%)
• • Market strongly favours Beraldo (1.32) despite worse historical win percentage in provided data
• • Small sample sizes and recent losses for both players increase variance and downside risk