Highlights

• • Estimated win probability for Cattaneo ~62%; market implies ~72.7%.
• • Required decimal price for +EV on Cattaneo is ≈1.613; current 1.376 is too short.

Pros

• + Cattaneo has the better recorded win rate and more matches played.
• + Both players favor clay, so no unexpected surface swing.

Cons

• - Both are in poor recent form; small sample sizes increase uncertainty.
• - Market contains a significant margin and prices Cattaneo as a heavy favorite, eliminating value.

Details

We estimate Leonardo Cattaneo is the stronger player but not overwhelmingly so given small samples and both players' poor recent form. Book market prices (home 1.376 => implied 72.7%) appear too short versus our calibrated win probability of 62%. Using our probability (p = 0.62) the expected value at the current home price is EV = 0.62 * 1.376 - 1 = -0.148 (≈ -14.8% ROI), so there is no value at the quoted odds. To be +EV on Cattaneo we would need at least decimal 1.613 (1 / 0.62). We therefore decline to recommend a side at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Both players have limited match samples and poor recent results (Cattaneo 5-11, Parenti 2-8).
• • Surface profiles are similar (clay common); no strong surface advantage identified.
• • Market implies a large favorite probability (≈72.7%) which our assessment does not support.