Highlights

• • Implied market probability for home is ~64.1%
• • Our conservative true estimate is 55%, requiring odds ≥1.818 for value

Pros

• + Taddia has recent match experience on hard courts (1-1)
• + Home is the market favorite, suggesting some market confidence

Cons

• - Player data set is extremely small and noisy (only 2 recorded matches)
• - No information on the opponent or match conditions to justify the market price

Details

We compare the market price (Home 1.56 => implied 64.1%) to our estimated true probability. Leonardo Taddia's only documented record is extremely limited (2 matches, 1-1, both on hard), offering little basis to justify a >64% win probability against an unknown opponent. Given the small sample size, lack of H2H or opponent information, and uncertain surface/conditions, we conservatively estimate Taddia's true win probability at 55%. At that probability the fair price would be ~1.818, so the current home moneyline (1.56) represents negative expected value. Therefore we do not recommend betting at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Extremely limited sample for Leonardo Taddia (2 matches total)
• • Market-implied probability (64.1%) exceeds our conservative true estimate
• • No available information on Antonio Marigliano or head-to-head, increasing uncertainty