Highlights

• • Home implied probability ~69.9% (1/1.43) — market is strongly favouring Taddia
• • Our conservative true probability estimate is 57%, creating a negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Taddia has one recorded hard-court win in the supplied data
• + Market currently favors the home player, so liquidity is available if new info emerges

Cons

• - Extremely small sample size for Taddia (only two recorded matches) limits confidence
• - No information provided on Ivan La Cava — unknown opponent strength raises uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.43 => implied ~69.9%) to an evidence-based read. The only supplied player data is Leonardo Taddia (career 1-1, two matches on hard, limited sample). There is no information on Ivan La Cava in the research, so we must discount the market edge created by unknowns. Given Taddia's tiny sample (50% on hard from two matches) and no head-to-head or fitness/injury data for either player, we estimate the home true win probability materially below the market-implied ~70% — we set it at 57%. At decimal 1.43 that yields EV = 0.57*1.43 - 1 = -0.185 (negative). Because expected value is negative at current prices we recommend no bet. If a bet were to be considered, the home side would need minimum decimal odds of at least 1.754 to break even given our 57% estimate.

Key factors

• • Very limited performance data for Leonardo Taddia (2 career matches; 1-1 overall; 1-1 on hard)
• • No research data provided for Ivan La Cava (unknown form / ranking / injuries)
• • Market implies ~69.9% for home (1.43) which looks stretched given the small sample and missing opponent info