Highlights

• • Market implies 74.5% for Sabaliauskas; our estimate is ~62%
• • Required fair odds for Sabaliauskas to be profitable are ~1.613 (market is 1.342)

Pros

• + Sabaliauskas has more match experience and is the logical favorite
• + Both players' clay experience reduces the chance of a large unknown swing

Cons

• - Sabaliauskas' career win rate is poor; current market price likely overstates his chances
• - Angeloni's form is also weak, so the underdog is not a clear value long shot

Details

We estimate Ainius Sabaliauskas to be the market favorite but believe the quoted price (1.342) overstates his win probability. Both players show limited recent success on clay in the provided profiles: Angeloni (2-3 career, recent straight defeats) and Sabaliauskas (3-12 career, recent losses). Sabaliauskas' larger sample size and longer career give him a clear edge in experience, but his poor overall win-rate and recent form reduce the likelihood that he is a ~74.5% chance winner implied by current odds. We model Sabaliauskas' true win probability at ~62%; at that probability the required fair decimal odds are ~1.613, substantially higher than the market price needed to show value for backing him. Conversely, Angeloni’s price (3.03) implies ~33% and may be tempting, but his limited match volume and recent losses do not justify a true win probability high enough to make the long price a value bet. Therefore we recommend no bet — the favorite's market price is too short for our estimated probability, and the underdog lacks sufficient upside value at available prices.

Key factors

• • Both players show weak recent form on clay in the provided records
• • Sabaliauskas has much larger sample size but also a poor career win rate (3-12), limiting confidence
• • Market heavily favors the away player (implied ~74.5%), which we judge overstated versus our ~62% estimate