Highlights

• • Scomparin priced at 1.625 implies 61.5% — we estimate 62%
• • Resulting EV is small: ~+0.75% ROI on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Scomparin's better clay-specific record supports the slight probability edge
• + Market price closely matches our estimate, so this is a low-variance value bet

Cons

• - Edge is very small and can vanish with minor changes to probability assumptions
• - Limited sample sizes and incomplete match-level data increase uncertainty

Details

We estimate Pietro Romeo Scomparin is the slight favorite on clay given a superior recent win rate (≈53% career vs Malgaroli's ≈32%) and more clay-specific experience. The market prices Scomparin at 1.625 (implied 61.54%). We assess his true win probability at about 62.0%, which is marginally higher than the market-implied probability and therefore offers small positive value. EV calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.62 * 1.625 - 1 = +0.0075 (≈+0.75% ROI). Key contributors to this edge are Scomparin's better win rate on clay, Malgaroli's weaker overall record and recent form, and the match being on a surface Scomparin has largely played. The edge is small and sensitive to our probability estimate, so this is a low-margin value opportunity rather than a strong mismatch.

Key factors

• • Scomparin has a materially better career win rate and clay experience
• • Market-implied probability (61.54%) is slightly below our 62% estimate
• • Malgaroli's overall record and recent results indicate lower upside on this surface