Highlights

• • Franca implied break-even probability at 6.41 is ~15.6%; we estimate his true chance ~12%
• • Both sides are negative-expected-value at current market prices

Pros

• + Market strongly favors Leite, reflecting observable superiority
• + Large underdog price on Franca could be profitable if new information increases his win chance above ~15.6%

Cons

• - Our estimated probability for Franca (12%) is below the threshold needed to make 6.41 profitable
• - Wilson Leite’s market price leaves no margin for profitable backing given realistic true-win estimates

Details

We compare the market prices to our estimated win probability. The market makes Wilson Leite a very large favorite (implied ~87.2% at 1.147) and Leonardo Storck Franca a long-priced underdog at 6.41 (implied ~15.6%). Based on Leite's available career sample (17-29) and mixed recent form, we still assess that Leite is clearly the stronger player here; however we assign Franca a true win probability of ~12% (0.12), which is below the market-implied requirement to make the 6.41 price profitable. Required probability to break even at 6.41 is 1/6.41 = 15.59%; our 12% estimate yields EV = 0.12*6.41 - 1 = -0.231 (negative). Conversely, backing Leite at 1.147 would also be negative unless his true win probability exceeded ~87.2%, which is implausible given his recorded results and the general variance in ITF matches. Therefore neither side offers positive expected value at current publicly-available odds.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Franca at 6.41 is ~15.6%; our model estimates ~12%
• • Wilson Leite is heavily favored by the market but his career record shows mixed results (17-29), limiting an >87% true-win estimate
• • Limited available data on Franca increases variance and uncertainty, making longshots attractive only if above threshold probability