Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home (45.2%) is below our 48% estimate
• • Positive EV of ~6.1% on a 1-unit stake at current home odds

Pros

• + Comparable player profiles reduce uncertainty from hidden quality gaps
• + Current home odds (2.21) offer a measurable edge versus our conservative probability

Cons

• - Edge is small and driven by parity assumptions rather than strong positive indicators
• - Limited and noisy data on doubles pair chemistry and recent form increases variance

Details

We find roughly even baseline strength between the pairs: all four players show near-identical career W-L records and recent results on hard/clay with no reported injuries or clear form advantages. The market prices the away pair at 1.68 (≈59.5% implied), while the home pair is 2.21 (≈45.2% implied). Given the near parity in profiles and lack of distinguishing data, we estimate the home pair's true chance is about 48.0%, which is meaningfully higher than the market-implied 45.2% for the home side. At the quoted 2.21, that produces a positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Both pairs show nearly identical career win-loss records and recent results
• • No injury reports or surface-specific advantage in the available data
• • Current market under-prices the home side relative to a conservative 48% true win estimate