Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability for Leonie Kung: 92.5%
• • Negative EV on the favorite at current odds (approx -0.9% ROI)

Pros

• + Market price for favorite reflects very strong likelihood to win (low variance for outcomes)
• + If additional info (injury, withdrawal) emerges, opportunities could change quickly

Cons

• - Quoted favorite price (1.071) offers no positive expected value under conservative assumptions
• - Underdog price (12.2) would only be value if true win chance >= ~8.20%, which we cannot justify without further data

Details

We conservatively estimate Leonie Kung is the clear favorite but the market price (home 1.071) already reflects a very high probability. Using a conservative true-win probability of 92.5% for Kung, the EV at the quoted home price is negative: EV = 0.925 * 1.071 - 1 = -0.009 (about -0.9% ROI). The implied probability at 1.071 is ~93.5%, so the market is slightly heavier than our conservative view and offers no value on the heavy favorite. The away price (12.2) would require Valeriya Strakhova to have a true win probability above ~8.20% to be break-even; with no supporting data and given this is a first-round ITF match where favorites typically dominate, we do not assign that level of true probability to the underdog. Therefore we recommend no bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Leonie Kung (1.071) leaving minimal margin
• • No external data available; conservative statistical assumptions applied
• • First-round ITF matches carry non-zero upset risk but not enough to justify the 12.2 price without evidence