Highlights

• • Chwalinska heavily favored by market (implied ≈92.6%)
• • Our conservative true probability estimate (~90%) produces negative EV at current prices

Pros

• + Strong candidate to win based on experience and career record
• + Low upset risk—match is strongly one-sided on paper

Cons

• - Market price is too short to offer value versus our probability estimate
• - Small margin for error: only a slight change in perceived probability would be needed to flip EV

Details

We compare the market price (Maja Chwalinska at 1.081 implied ≈92.6%) to our assessment of the true win probability. Chwalinska is the clear favorite: far greater experience, a long winning career record and competence across surfaces versus Leonie Kung's limited match wins and poor recent results. That said, the market price leaves almost no margin — to justify a bet we would need to believe Chwalinska's win probability materially exceeds ~92.6%. Based on the available profiles (form, experience, surface versatility) we estimate Chwalinska's true win probability at ~90.0%, which does not beat the market price. At current odds the expected value is negative, so we do not recommend taking the favorite here.

Key factors

• • Large experience and win-count advantage for Chwalinska versus Kung's limited wins
• • Recent form and overall match record favor Chwalinska; no injury reports available to suggest upset potential
• • Market price for Chwalinska (1.081) implies a higher probability than our estimate, leaving no value