Highlights

• • Market implies ~86.8% for Kraus; our conservative estimate is 90%.
• • Small but positive ROI (~3.7%) at current available odds.

Pros

• + Large experience and proven durability at this level for Kraus
• + Opponent has limited wins and recent poor form, increasing likelihood of a straightforward match

Cons

• - Edge is modest—low margin and sensitive to small changes in true probability
• - Limited specific match-level data (H2H, conditions) in the research increases uncertainty

Details

We see a heavy market short on Sinja Kraus at 1.152 (implied ~86.8%). Based on the research available, Kraus has an extensive career (559-507) and deep experience across surfaces compared with Leonie Kung’s limited pro record (10-21). Kung’s recent form is poor and she has far fewer matches at this level, while there is no research indicating injury or a specific advantage for Kung. Conservatively estimating Kraus’s true win probability at 90.0% gives value versus the market price: required fair odds would be ~1.111, which is lower than the available 1.152, producing a positive expected value. We therefore recommend backing the away player at the current price as a small positive-edge bet.

Key factors

• • Large experience and career win total advantage for Sinja Kraus
• • Leonie Kung’s limited match history and poor recent results (10-21)
• • No reported injury or surface mismatch favoring the underdog in the provided data