Leonie Schuknecht vs Raveena Kingsley
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market heavily overprices Raveena; based on available data we estimate her win probability far below the implied 87.7%, so there is no value on either side at current odds.
Highlights
- • Market implies Raveena ~87.7% chance (1.14) which conflicts with her 10-21 career record
- • Fair odds by our estimate would be ~2.857 (implied probability ~35%)
Pros
- + Clear discrepancy between market-implied probability and player's documented career record
- + Conservative estimate avoids taking a low-value heavy favourite
Cons
- - No information on Leonie Schuknecht in the provided research — genuine heavy favourite could be justified by unknown opponent weakness
- - If there are short-term factors (injury to Leonie, withdrawal, walkover, or mispriced market) not in the data, our estimate could be inaccurate
Details
The market prices Raveena Kingsley at 1.14 (implied win probability ~87.7%). Our assessment based on the available research (career record 10-21, recent losses on hard courts and limited upside shown in recent results) does not support anywhere near an 87.7% chance. We estimate Raveena's true win probability at ~35% given her career winning percentage and visible recent form; that implies fair decimal odds of roughly 2.857. At the current price of 1.14 the bet on Raveena is a large negative EV (we calculate EV below), so there is no value on the favorite and we recommend taking no side. Key uncertainties include no data on Leonie Schuknecht in the provided research (which could justify market moves), surface and draw context not provided, and the possibility of market misreporting or very short-term factors not included in the sources.
Key factors
- • Raveena Kingsley career record 10-21 suggests win rate well below market-implied probability
- • Recent documented matches show losses on hard courts and no clear form uptick
- • No data provided on Leonie Schuknecht (unknown opponent quality) increases uncertainty