Highlights

• • Market-implied home probability: ~7.7%
• • Our conservative estimated home probability: 10%
• • EV at current odds: +0.30 (30% ROI)

Pros

• + Clear edge vs. market-implied probability even with conservative assumptions
• + Yardley's recent form and career record justify a meaningful upset chance

Cons

• - Limited information on the home player (Leticia De Oliveira Pinto) and contextual match factors
• - Small-sample uncertainty in assessment; upsets are still low-probability events

Details

The market prices Summer Yardley at 1.03 (implied ~97.1% for the away), which makes the home player a 13.0 underdog (implied ~7.69%). We judge that the market is overstating Yardley's certainty to win given her overall 10-22 career record and multiple recent losses on hard courts, which introduces non-trivial upset probability. Conservatively estimating the true chance of the home player winning at 10.0% vs. the market's 7.69% implies positive edge: EV = 0.10*13.0 - 1 = +0.30 (30% ROI). Therefore we recommend backing the home player at the quoted 13.0 because the odds offered exceed the minimum fair price implied by our model (>=10.0).

Key factors

• • Market implies home win probability of ~7.69% (1/13.0) which is very low
• • Away (Yardley) has a 10-22 career record and recent losses on hard courts, suggesting lower certainty than 97%
• • Lack of detailed opponent/injury info increases uncertainty and supports a higher-than-market upset probability