Highlights

• • Neutral model gives Lexie Weir ~50.5% chance to win
• • Current home price (1.92) is below the break-even price (~1.98) for that probability

Pros

• + We use conservative assumptions to avoid overestimating value
• + Clear break-even threshold provided if odds move

Cons

• - No match-specific data available — higher uncertainty
• - If undisclosed factors (injury, surface advantage) exist, our estimate may be off

Details

We have no external data on form, injuries, surface, or head-to-head, so we adopt conservative assumptions. The current decimal prices imply probabilities of ~52.1% (Lexie Weir at 1.92) and ~55.6% (Ema Bubalo at 1.80). Based on a neutral baseline (slight home adjustment only) we estimate Lexie Weir's true win probability at 50.5%. At the quoted home price (1.92) that estimate produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.505 * 1.92 - 1 = -0.0304). To be +EV on Lexie Weir at our probability estimate we'd need at least 1.980 decimal, which is above the available 1.92. With no reliable information to increase our probability estimate, neither side offers positive expected value at the listed quotes, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external data on form, injuries, surface, or H2H — conservative baseline used
• • Current prices: Home 1.92 (implied 52.1%), Away 1.80 (implied 55.6%)
• • Our neutral estimate (50.5% for home) yields negative EV at available odds