Highlights

• • We estimate Lani Brotman win probability at 60%, below the market-implied level after adjustment
• • Required fair odds for value on the favorite are ~1.667; available price 1.52 is too short

Pros

• + Conservative approach reduces risk of overestimating value given missing information
• + Clear thresholds provided: 1.667 is the minimum decimal to back the estimated true probability

Cons

• - If unseen factors favor the underdog (Lexie Weir), we may be overlooking value
• - Estimates are coarse due to absence of surface, form, injury, and H2H data

Details

We lack independent match data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) so we adopt a conservative, market-aware estimate. The market prices Lani Brotman at 1.52 (implied ~65.8%). We shrink the market edge toward a neutral prior and estimate Lani's true win probability at 60% (0.60) to account for uncertainty and bookmaker margin. At that estimate the required fair decimal price is 1.667; the available 1.52 is too short, producing a negative expected value. Conversely, backing Lexie Weir at 2.40 would require a true win probability ≥41.67% to be +EV; without specific evidence to raise the underdog's win chance above ~42% we cannot justify taking the 2.40 line. Given the absence of corroborating information, neither side offers positive expected value at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • No independent data on form, surface preference, injuries or H2H available
• • Market-implied probability for the favorite (1.52) is ~65.8%; we conservatively shrink to 60%
• • Underdog would need ≥41.67% true win probability to be +EV at 2.40; no evidence supports that uplift