Highlights

• • Leyla's documented win rate (10/32 = 31.25%) implies she is not a 90%+ favorite.
• • Break-even odds for Leyla based on our estimate are ~3.20; current offer of 1.09 is poor value.

Pros

• + We are cautious and data-driven given the limited information available.
• + Clear numerical comparison between implied market probability and player historical win rate.

Cons

• - Opponent data is missing, which means our estimate cannot incorporate head-to-head or opponent weaknesses.
• - Short career sample and potential context (injuries, tournament tier) are not fully captured in the provided source.

Details

We cannot find value on the heavy favorite at the quoted price. Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso's available career record is 10-22 (32 matches) — a raw win rate of 31.25% — and recent form appears weak. The market is pricing her at 1.09 (implied win probability ~91.7%), which is massively higher than what Leyla's match history supports. We lack any reliable data on Sara Shumate from the provided sources, so we cannot justify elevating Leyla's true win probability to the 90%+ range required to make 1.09 a value bet. Using a conservative estimate based on Leyla's documented record (31.25% true win probability), the home line is a clear negative-expectation wager. To break even on Leyla we would need decimal odds around 3.200; current market odds are far below that, so we advise taking no side.

Key factors

• • Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso career record 10-22 (31.25% win rate) across 32 matches
• • Market price (home 1.09) implies ~91.7% win chance — a large mismatch with documented form
• • No usable data on opponent (Sara Shumate) in the provided research, increasing uncertainty