Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Angela Fita Boluda

Highlights

• • Market implies ~29.9% for away; our estimate is 45%
• • Required decimal to break even on our estimate is 2.222; market offers 3.35

Pros

• + Clear numerical value at current odds
• + Both players' profiles give no strong justification for the heavy favorite pricing

Cons

• - Very limited, low-resolution data in research increases model uncertainty
• - No H2H, detailed match-level stats, or event-specific context provided to refine probability

Details

We find value on Angela Fita Boluda (away) because the market heavily favors Leyre Romero Gormaz at 1.331 (implied ~75.2%) despite both players showing virtually identical public records (10-21) and similar surface experience in the provided data. There are no clear recent-form, injury, or surface-based reasons in the research to justify a three-to-one pricing gap. Treating the matchup as closely contested, we estimate Angela's true win probability materially higher than the market's implied ~29.9%. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 45% for Angela versus the current bookmaker decimal of 3.35 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.508 per 1.00 staked). Therefore we recommend the away side only because current prices offer clear value relative to our probability assessment.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and surface history in the provided data (10-21)
• • No documented injuries, withdrawals or clear form advantage in the research to justify heavy favoritism
• • Bookmaker-implied probability for the favorite (Leyre) is uncommonly high relative to the available information, creating value on the underdog